Will JJ and Spio battle Mills and John for 2012?

Qanawu Gabby (updated 7pm Sept 29)

Plenty of talk within the circles of the New Patriotic Party about
factionalism within the main opposition party. There are the few who
wish to believe that there are no camps in the NPP and the many who
admit there are camps. More worrying for party analysts is the growing
worry among the rank and file and sympathisers that factionalism could
see once again defeat snapped from the jaws of the National Democratic
Congress by the NPP.
But, if those involved in the competition-driven NPP factionalism mean
well for the party then the NPP has very little to worry about.
Polling station officers’ elections in first week of October;
constituency and regional officers’ contests follow in October and
November, respectively. Once national officers are chosen in December,
the stage is set for the presidential candidate to be chosen,
preferably in the first half of 2010. This leaves NPP until the end of
2010 to sort out all major differences, bond together behind the
nominated leaders and set clear guidelines and mechanisms to ensure a
harmonious parliamentary primaries in 2011/12.
But, the potential for deep-wounding factionalism appears more
apparent in the ruling party than the NPP. I made this point before
September (see maiden edition of The Thunder) and a couple of articles
recently support this view. First of all, power has its obvious way of
making competition for positions seem like a one-off race for limited
accommodation in heaven. Secondly, there are high voltage live fault
lines in the NDC that are likely to experience a power surge in 2012.
Former President Jerry John Rawlings has already given notice that
President John Mills and Vice John Mahama are presiding over borrowed
time, with a grace period shorter than hoped. In the eyes of the NDC
founder and some notable players, President Mills is fast losing his
credit worthiness. President Rawlings can be expected to seriously
consider sponsoring a candidate in 2012 against President Mills. The
former President can be inspired by his own estimation of the support
he enjoys among the grassroots of the party and he has cleverly
crafted his outbursts with the kind of populism that resonates with
the foot-soldiers of the party.
Yet, the NDC founder is likely to face a dilemma similar to what he
faced in 2006. He did not see Prof Mills then as necessarily the best
man to lead the NDC. But President Rawlings was checked by sheer
ground reality: Prof Mills had ridden on the popularity horse of
President Rawlings to have become mightily popular and well-marketed;
to attempt to mount a public challenge against him could seriously
compromise your own hallowed standing in the party you created. So,
Rawlings obediently dropped his two hands in his damerifa.
On the face of it, it seems even more difficult now to mount any
credible challenge against Mills, surely? But, there are strong hints
that Rawlings may be joining up with the man who came second to Mills
in the 2006 flagbearership race to mount an all-out war to get Mills
out. In his hard-hitting article in the September 18 and Wednesday 23
September, 2009 editions of the Daily Graphic, Ekwow Spio Garbrah
spoke boldly as if to say he has pitched camp with Rawlings. Spio
accuses the President being too slow and putting the party's fortunes
in 2012 at risk barely 9 months after taking over. Like Rawlings'
criticisms of Mills, Spio crafted his piece to appeal to the ordinary
members of the party, who are still queuing up for their modest ration
of the better Ghana. They are also crying out for some Mabeys (free
cash), if not jobs.
His warning that leading NDC members would not sit by and watch Mills
return the NDC into opposition cannot be ignored.
“Should leading NDC members stay quietly on the sidelines even if we
can see that if matters continue as they are [NDC] would lose power in
2012? Are we the kind of passengers who sit passively in a bus until
we die in an accident even when we realise that the bus is not being
driven well?” he says. Spio concludes that Mills is driving the NDC
juggernaut into an electoral accident in 2012.
Spio has not been able to come to terms with Mills vindictiveness
against him as much as Mills has never come to terms with what he sees
as Spio's betrayal on the issue of Mills' health. If Spio cannot
convince coach Mills to select him then he's going straight to the
party's shareholders to convince them to change the coach for 2012 and
hopefully make him the coach.
But, should Rawlings and Spio team up to contest Mills, that would be
an all-out war. The NDC should do all that it can to avoid that. Could
the party recover from that kind of intra-political brawl in time to
face the NPP in 2012? I doubt it.
It is not that Rawlings and Spio would win such a fight. Highly
unlikely. Even if Rawlings and Spio are really serious about meeting
Mills head to head together Mills is likely to triumph because the
sensible people in the party would want to stick to driver Mills, even
if he's accident prone. However, Mills would only refuse to run and
use his health as an excuse if his popularity were to dip so low even
beneath the radar of self-deceit. Performing anywhere near fair is
enough to get him to believe he has done mightily well and can do more
and so continue, regardless of any objective advice he's likely to
get.
Again, waiting in the wings is Vice President John Mahama. John is
cleverly building his support base and, one can expect, his war chest,
as well. But, only as a standby strategy. He's not one to rock the
boat so long as the leakage may be deceptively minor.
There is already talk of the Ahwois preparing their brother Kwesi
Ahwoi as a probable candidate. His work as Minister of Agriculture,
with the biggest budget increase this year, allows him to go down on
the ground and do some real work for nation, party and ambition. But,
the Ahwois know too well that their best bet is to keep Mills well and
on for a second term. And, even if it means keeping Mills' popularity
on a life-support machine they would do so to make him run and
therefore maintain their power base. If Spio was in any doubt about
that then Ato Ahwoi's reply should have done some excellent valeting
on Spio's mind.
John Mahama will only run should his boss not. Mills would not have
done enough in 2012 to be contend with his legacy and is likely to be
persuaded by post-2012 oil prospects to want to have another go at a
better Ghana.
The best way the NDC can patch up internal cracks and create a
semblance of party unity is to maintain Mills. President Mills running
effectively stops any serious challenge or acrimonious succession
contest among the three or so power camps within the party. Unlike the
NPP, the NDC would have less than 12 months to patch up before the
2012 general elections.
One of the biggest Hollywood movie hits in 2008 was the ‘Curious Case
of Benjamin Button’. It was about a person who was born already as an
old man in his 80s and grew backward, getting younger until his aged
wife had to carry him as a baby in her arms ‘til death did them part.
For those who think the better Ghana is just a bitter Ghana and have
soon given up hope, they should just take a look at President John
Evans Atta Mills.
He is looking a lot healthier than he did just 9 months ago. He is
getting better. The better Ghana has started with him and we all hope
it may soon trickle down to the rest of Ghanaians.
For those who think President Mills is just a one term head of state,
they should begin to revise their notes. Well, it is said that he
managed to convince John Mahama, who was having daydreams about moving
to South Africa, that the younger and healthier looking man should
join the Mills 2008 ticket and that Mills would pass the baton on to
him after just one term. It is also said that John Mahama then
convinced Hannah Tetteh to retire from her early retirement from
active politics to join him and maybe the two of them could form a
north-south, man-woman dream ticket for 2012.
For those who feared the health of candidate Mills Not only is
President Mills looking every bit a President in good shape, what
candidates promise and what presidents think once they get hit by the
power bug are as compatible as power and hunger. To reiterate, beyond
that President Mills is likely to find out at the end of his four-year
term that he has not delivered anything near what he promised.
The economic indicators and forecasts are not helpful to his wishful
legacy. It is predicted that at least 10 million Ghanaians will get
poorer in the next two years than they were in December 2008, with
inflation depleting their purchasing power. This is expected,
according to World Bank figures, to push half a million more Ghanaians
below the poverty line of $1.25 per day.
President Mills knows he can’t do much to turn the tide of economic
stagnation in four years. He needs more than what the IMF and World
Bank are offering yet he has signed up to the kind of conditionalities
that seriously limits his fiscal manoeuvrability. The IMF may not even
allow him to raise oil bonds next year on the capital market, since
that would be considered non-concessionary. There are even
nonconcessionary issues today about moves by Ecobank and Stanchart to
raise money for the Tema Oil Refinery to pay off some of the debt owed
to Ghana Commercial Bank.
With no serious revenue from oil expected to trickle into state
coffers before 2013, President Mills is bound to feel another four
years should do the trick. The question is, would JJ and Spio share
that position enough not to upset Mills' position?