Britain goes to the polls today. The main candidates are Gordon Brown of Labour, David Cameron of the main opposition Conservatives and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats. Labour supporters and members of parliament are bracing themselves for a humiliating defeat today.
Thirteen years of Labour Party rule in Britain has taken its toll. The wind of change that blew across the Atlantic from America to Ghana has made a vertical shoot via the Greenwich Meridian to the UK. The campaign slogan of the main opposition party in the UK is “Vote for Change”.
Yet the outcome of the UK general election on May 6 is by no means certain. To use the cover story of the Focus on Africa Magazine in 2008 on the Ghanaian elections, it is ‘Too Close To Call’. About a year ago, today was supposed to be a done deal for the younger Cameron. That the Conservative leader should be going into today's poll with the result far too close to call is a surely a testament to the humiliating deficiencies of his campaign, according to one commentary.
David Cameron, the 43 year-old leader of the Conservative Party, a contemporary of mine in the Young Conservatives (the Tory youth win) during university years, would have had an easier go at getting the needed majority to form the next government, but he has not been able to deal decisively with serious doubts about his experience, capability and substance as a formidable politician.
Until today, out of a total of 646 seats, Labour controlled 345 seats, the Conservative Party 193, Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) 63. Dr Brown led with a working majority of 56, less 289 of all other parties - excluding Speaker & Deputies and the 5 Sinn Fein MPs who refused to take their seats at Westminster).
Yesterday, YouGov opinion poll left the Conservatives on 35%, the Lib Dems on 24% (down 4) and Labour on 30% (+2). The last two days saw the three candidates doing night shifts all in a bid to win over the floating voters. Of the 116 marginal/swing constituencies, the Conservatives need to win to form an overall majority, 26 are held by Lib Dem and 90 are Labour. Nine of them could go to any of the three parties and 81 are LAB-CON marginals.
It is for this reason that in the last few days, Labour has been calling for tactical voting in favour of Lib Dem in areas that they know Labour can by no means unseat the Tories. They are also calling on Lib Dem sympathisers to give their votes to Labour to keep out the Tories. If this anti-Tory pact works, Labour would end up holding on to 81 seats, while the Lib Dems would hold on to 26 and gain nine.
Tactical voting is defined as a conscious decision by a voter to back a party other than the one they support, in a pragmatic bid to secure a more desirable result in their constituency.
But, Qanawu does not expect a large shift in support from Lib Dem to Labour. Labour has gone stale. Nobody doubts Mr Brown’s handling of the recession-hit UK economy. Yet, Britons have seen their living standards suffered in the last couple of years and there can be no scapegoat as convenient as the incumbent government.
As the Daily Express believes only David Cameron can save Britain, telling readers “David Cameron has decisively won the case for change. But he needs a clear mandate. So the Daily Express urges readers to vote Conservative tomorrow. The future of our nation is at stake.”
In fact, out of the 15 most influential newspapers in the UK, two (Guardian and Observer) have shifted from Labour to Lib Dem, only one, the Mirror, is for Labour while advocating tactical voting for Lib Dem. The rest are all for the Conservative Party, including the Financial Times, Times and the Observer, which had not supported the Tories for at least 18 years.
As if it is an European conspiracy, just yesterday, the European Commission warned that the British budget deficit will swell this year to become the biggest in the European Union, overtaking even Greece. The EC’s spring economic forecasts put the UK deficit for this calendar year at 12% of GDP, the highest of all 27 EU nations and worse than the Treasury's own forecasts. It is also likely to help the Conservatives because there are doubts that a hung parliament will have the clout to rapidly reduce the deficit. A hung parliament is when no single party has enough seats to form a majority government on its own.
The Conservatives are likely to win their fight to oust the ruling Labour Party, but it is clear that no one party is likely to have an overall majority. The last time Britain had a hung parliament was in 1974 and that was short-lived because the cabinet could not even agree on how refuse should be collected. What seems obvious, despite all the scare tactics of the last few days is that the old voting system which produced a two-and-a-half party system in British politics will change from today. The smaller Lib Dem has finally arrived, a fate that our own Nkrumaist parties have not been able to achieve since 1992.
The inexperienced, Eton-educated Cameron has managed to give the Tories a new, soft image from the old haughty right-wing image. But, bringing the Tories to the centre has only made it more difficult for the voters to differentiate between the two main parties. In 1997 when Britons voted for change after 18 years under the Tories, there was a clear delineation between left and right, between Conservative and Labour. Now the lines are blurred.
This has forced the Liberals to be more left wing than the social democrats of Labour. The Lib Dems know that their only hope of having a piece of the governing cake is through a coalition.
Paul Stone, the public law expert at DLA Piper argues that a coalition government can lead to laws that are “often watered down to the point of being anodyne as a result of endless rounds of review and compromise”. Ironically, the wife of Nick Clegg (the apostle of coalition) works for DLA Piper.
Nick Clegg said in Durham called out to Britons to come out and vote in their numbers. “It might be a small cross [on the ballot paper] but it will be a big step towards a better, fairer Britain,” he says.
Like Dr Kwesi Nduom in 2008, Nick Clegg’s star shone the brightest in the first debate, with his purported disdain for the “old politics”, and taking easy pot shots at the other two. But, unlike Nduom, Clegg has managed to stay significant in the polls after the debates. Cleggmania had sustainability.
Desperate Brown is did a lot of walking, talking and even smiling with more confidence, shaking more greasy factory hands and carrying more pampers-wearing babies than he thought necessary some weeks ago. This is very different to the earlier campaign, which was all about getting the PM to meet his supporters in controlled environments.
“I know there are people who say, or hope, that the election is already over. But I tell you that tomorrow is the time for the thousands of people to speak for themselves. Tomorrow doesn't belong to the press, to the commentators, to the insiders, to the vested interests or even to the political parties. Tomorrow your voice shall be heard and your vote will determine the direction of this country.” That was Brown yesterday.
But my prediction is that he would be forced to resign on May 7 and with Labour having a new leader, and the conservatives just falling short of a working majority there is every chance for Clegg to be a kingmaker, forming a coalition government with Labour under a new leader. I certainly hope David triumphs and deliver a brighter Britain.
The Daily Telegraph, in backing David Cameron reminds readers that the Conservative is still “Built on the concept that the state should do less, better, and that decisions are best taken as closely as possible to where they impact, it addresses the straitened circumstances of the time...”
The Sunday Telegraph editorial still believes that there is a marked difference between the two main parties: “Despite the parties' attempts to capture the all-important middle ground, the differences between them are clear. Labour believes that only the state can solve the country's economic and social problems. The Conservatives, by contrast, believe that the growth of the central state is the cause of the problem, not its solution, and want to call upon the invigorating power of citizens and communities.”
qanawu.blogspot.com
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Goodbye Brown, hello Cameron, welcome Clegg
Britain goes to the polls today. The main candidates are Gordon Brown of Labour, David Cameron of the main opposition Conservatives and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats. Labour supporters and members of parliament are bracing themselves for a humiliating defeat today.
Thirteen years of Labour Party rule in Britain has taken its toll. The wind of change that blew across the Atlantic from America to Ghana has made a vertical shoot via the Greenwich Meridian to the UK. The campaign slogan of the main opposition party in the UK is “Vote for Change”.
Yet the outcome of the UK general election on May 6 is by no means certain. To use the cover story of the Focus on Africa Magazine in 2008 on the Ghanaian elections, it is ‘Too Close To Call’. About a year ago, today was supposed to be a done deal for the younger Cameron. That the Conservative leader should be going into today's poll with the result far too close to call is a surely a testament to the humiliating deficiencies of his campaign, according to one commentary.
David Cameron, the 43 year-old leader of the Conservative Party, a contemporary of mine in the Young Conservatives (the Tory youth win) during university years, would have had an easier go at getting the needed majority to form the next government, but he has not been able to deal decisively with serious doubts about his experience, capability and substance as a formidable politician.
Until today, out of a total of 646 seats, Labour controlled 345 seats, the Conservative Party 193, Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) 63. Dr Brown led with a working majority of 56, less 289 of all other parties - excluding Speaker & Deputies and the 5 Sinn Fein MPs who refused to take their seats at Westminster).
Yesterday, YouGov opinion poll left the Conservatives on 35%, the Lib Dems on 24% (down 4) and Labour on 30% (+2). The last two days saw the three candidates doing night shifts all in a bid to win over the floating voters. Of the 116 marginal/swing constituencies, the Conservatives need to win to form an overall majority, 26 are held by Lib Dem and 90 are Labour. Nine of them could go to any of the three parties and 81 are LAB-CON marginals.
It is for this reason that in the last few days, Labour has been calling for tactical voting in favour of Lib Dem in areas that they know Labour can by no means unseat the Tories. They are also calling on Lib Dem sympathisers to give their votes to Labour to keep out the Tories. If this anti-Tory pact works, Labour would end up holding on to 81 seats, while the Lib Dems would hold on to 26 and gain nine.
Tactical voting is defined as a conscious decision by a voter to back a party other than the one they support, in a pragmatic bid to secure a more desirable result in their constituency.
But, Qanawu does not expect a large shift in support from Lib Dem to Labour. Labour has gone stale. Nobody doubts Mr Brown’s handling of the recession-hit UK economy. Yet, Britons have seen their living standards suffered in the last couple of years and there can be no scapegoat as convenient as the incumbent government.
As the Daily Express believes only David Cameron can save Britain, telling readers “David Cameron has decisively won the case for change. But he needs a clear mandate. So the Daily Express urges readers to vote Conservative tomorrow. The future of our nation is at stake.”
In fact, out of the 15 most influential newspapers in the UK, two (Guardian and Observer) have shifted from Labour to Lib Dem, only one, the Mirror, is for Labour while advocating tactical voting for Lib Dem. The rest are all for the Conservative Party, including the Financial Times, Times and the Observer, which had not supported the Tories for at least 18 years.
As if it is an European conspiracy, just yesterday, the European Commission warned that the British budget deficit will swell this year to become the biggest in the European Union, overtaking even Greece. The EC’s spring economic forecasts put the UK deficit for this calendar year at 12% of GDP, the highest of all 27 EU nations and worse than the Treasury's own forecasts. It is also likely to help the Conservatives because there are doubts that a hung parliament will have the clout to rapidly reduce the deficit. A hung parliament is when no single party has enough seats to form a majority government on its own.
The Conservatives are likely to win their fight to oust the ruling Labour Party, but it is clear that no one party is likely to have an overall majority. The last time Britain had a hung parliament was in 1974 and that was short-lived because the cabinet could not even agree on how refuse should be collected. What seems obvious, despite all the scare tactics of the last few days is that the old voting system which produced a two-and-a-half party system in British politics will change from today. The smaller Lib Dem has finally arrived, a fate that our own Nkrumaist parties have not been able to achieve since 1992.
The inexperienced, Eton-educated Cameron has managed to give the Tories a new, soft image from the old haughty right-wing image. But, bringing the Tories to the centre has only made it more difficult for the voters to differentiate between the two main parties. In 1997 when Britons voted for change after 18 years under the Tories, there was a clear delineation between left and right, between Conservative and Labour. Now the lines are blurred.
This has forced the Liberals to be more left wing than the social democrats of Labour. The Lib Dems know that their only hope of having a piece of the governing cake is through a coalition.
Paul Stone, the public law expert at DLA Piper argues that a coalition government can lead to laws that are “often watered down to the point of being anodyne as a result of endless rounds of review and compromise”. Ironically, the wife of Nick Clegg (the apostle of coalition) works for DLA Piper.
Nick Clegg said in Durham called out to Britons to come out and vote in their numbers. “It might be a small cross [on the ballot paper] but it will be a big step towards a better, fairer Britain,” he says.
Like Dr Kwesi Nduom in 2008, Nick Clegg’s star shone the brightest in the first debate, with his purported disdain for the “old politics”, and taking easy pot shots at the other two. But, unlike Nduom, Clegg has managed to stay significant in the polls after the debates. Cleggmania had sustainability.
Desperate Brown is did a lot of walking, talking and even smiling with more confidence, shaking more greasy factory hands and carrying more pampers-wearing babies than he thought necessary some weeks ago. This is very different to the earlier campaign, which was all about getting the PM to meet his supporters in controlled environments.
“I know there are people who say, or hope, that the election is already over. But I tell you that tomorrow is the time for the thousands of people to speak for themselves. Tomorrow doesn't belong to the press, to the commentators, to the insiders, to the vested interests or even to the political parties. Tomorrow your voice shall be heard and your vote will determine the direction of this country.” That was Brown yesterday.
But my prediction is that he would be forced to resign on May 7 and with Labour having a new leader, and the conservatives just falling short of a working majority there is every chance for Clegg to be a kingmaker, forming a coalition government with Labour under a new leader. I certainly hope David triumphs and deliver a brighter Britain.
The Daily Telegraph, in backing David Cameron reminds readers that the Conservative is still “Built on the concept that the state should do less, better, and that decisions are best taken as closely as possible to where they impact, it addresses the straitened circumstances of the time...”
The Sunday Telegraph editorial still believes that there is a marked difference between the two main parties: “Despite the parties' attempts to capture the all-important middle ground, the differences between them are clear. Labour believes that only the state can solve the country's economic and social problems. The Conservatives, by contrast, believe that the growth of the central state is the cause of the problem, not its solution, and want to call upon the invigorating power of citizens and communities.”
qanawu.blogspot.com
Thirteen years of Labour Party rule in Britain has taken its toll. The wind of change that blew across the Atlantic from America to Ghana has made a vertical shoot via the Greenwich Meridian to the UK. The campaign slogan of the main opposition party in the UK is “Vote for Change”.
Yet the outcome of the UK general election on May 6 is by no means certain. To use the cover story of the Focus on Africa Magazine in 2008 on the Ghanaian elections, it is ‘Too Close To Call’. About a year ago, today was supposed to be a done deal for the younger Cameron. That the Conservative leader should be going into today's poll with the result far too close to call is a surely a testament to the humiliating deficiencies of his campaign, according to one commentary.
David Cameron, the 43 year-old leader of the Conservative Party, a contemporary of mine in the Young Conservatives (the Tory youth win) during university years, would have had an easier go at getting the needed majority to form the next government, but he has not been able to deal decisively with serious doubts about his experience, capability and substance as a formidable politician.
Until today, out of a total of 646 seats, Labour controlled 345 seats, the Conservative Party 193, Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) 63. Dr Brown led with a working majority of 56, less 289 of all other parties - excluding Speaker & Deputies and the 5 Sinn Fein MPs who refused to take their seats at Westminster).
Yesterday, YouGov opinion poll left the Conservatives on 35%, the Lib Dems on 24% (down 4) and Labour on 30% (+2). The last two days saw the three candidates doing night shifts all in a bid to win over the floating voters. Of the 116 marginal/swing constituencies, the Conservatives need to win to form an overall majority, 26 are held by Lib Dem and 90 are Labour. Nine of them could go to any of the three parties and 81 are LAB-CON marginals.
It is for this reason that in the last few days, Labour has been calling for tactical voting in favour of Lib Dem in areas that they know Labour can by no means unseat the Tories. They are also calling on Lib Dem sympathisers to give their votes to Labour to keep out the Tories. If this anti-Tory pact works, Labour would end up holding on to 81 seats, while the Lib Dems would hold on to 26 and gain nine.
Tactical voting is defined as a conscious decision by a voter to back a party other than the one they support, in a pragmatic bid to secure a more desirable result in their constituency.
But, Qanawu does not expect a large shift in support from Lib Dem to Labour. Labour has gone stale. Nobody doubts Mr Brown’s handling of the recession-hit UK economy. Yet, Britons have seen their living standards suffered in the last couple of years and there can be no scapegoat as convenient as the incumbent government.
As the Daily Express believes only David Cameron can save Britain, telling readers “David Cameron has decisively won the case for change. But he needs a clear mandate. So the Daily Express urges readers to vote Conservative tomorrow. The future of our nation is at stake.”
In fact, out of the 15 most influential newspapers in the UK, two (Guardian and Observer) have shifted from Labour to Lib Dem, only one, the Mirror, is for Labour while advocating tactical voting for Lib Dem. The rest are all for the Conservative Party, including the Financial Times, Times and the Observer, which had not supported the Tories for at least 18 years.
As if it is an European conspiracy, just yesterday, the European Commission warned that the British budget deficit will swell this year to become the biggest in the European Union, overtaking even Greece. The EC’s spring economic forecasts put the UK deficit for this calendar year at 12% of GDP, the highest of all 27 EU nations and worse than the Treasury's own forecasts. It is also likely to help the Conservatives because there are doubts that a hung parliament will have the clout to rapidly reduce the deficit. A hung parliament is when no single party has enough seats to form a majority government on its own.
The Conservatives are likely to win their fight to oust the ruling Labour Party, but it is clear that no one party is likely to have an overall majority. The last time Britain had a hung parliament was in 1974 and that was short-lived because the cabinet could not even agree on how refuse should be collected. What seems obvious, despite all the scare tactics of the last few days is that the old voting system which produced a two-and-a-half party system in British politics will change from today. The smaller Lib Dem has finally arrived, a fate that our own Nkrumaist parties have not been able to achieve since 1992.
The inexperienced, Eton-educated Cameron has managed to give the Tories a new, soft image from the old haughty right-wing image. But, bringing the Tories to the centre has only made it more difficult for the voters to differentiate between the two main parties. In 1997 when Britons voted for change after 18 years under the Tories, there was a clear delineation between left and right, between Conservative and Labour. Now the lines are blurred.
This has forced the Liberals to be more left wing than the social democrats of Labour. The Lib Dems know that their only hope of having a piece of the governing cake is through a coalition.
Paul Stone, the public law expert at DLA Piper argues that a coalition government can lead to laws that are “often watered down to the point of being anodyne as a result of endless rounds of review and compromise”. Ironically, the wife of Nick Clegg (the apostle of coalition) works for DLA Piper.
Nick Clegg said in Durham called out to Britons to come out and vote in their numbers. “It might be a small cross [on the ballot paper] but it will be a big step towards a better, fairer Britain,” he says.
Like Dr Kwesi Nduom in 2008, Nick Clegg’s star shone the brightest in the first debate, with his purported disdain for the “old politics”, and taking easy pot shots at the other two. But, unlike Nduom, Clegg has managed to stay significant in the polls after the debates. Cleggmania had sustainability.
Desperate Brown is did a lot of walking, talking and even smiling with more confidence, shaking more greasy factory hands and carrying more pampers-wearing babies than he thought necessary some weeks ago. This is very different to the earlier campaign, which was all about getting the PM to meet his supporters in controlled environments.
“I know there are people who say, or hope, that the election is already over. But I tell you that tomorrow is the time for the thousands of people to speak for themselves. Tomorrow doesn't belong to the press, to the commentators, to the insiders, to the vested interests or even to the political parties. Tomorrow your voice shall be heard and your vote will determine the direction of this country.” That was Brown yesterday.
But my prediction is that he would be forced to resign on May 7 and with Labour having a new leader, and the conservatives just falling short of a working majority there is every chance for Clegg to be a kingmaker, forming a coalition government with Labour under a new leader. I certainly hope David triumphs and deliver a brighter Britain.
The Daily Telegraph, in backing David Cameron reminds readers that the Conservative is still “Built on the concept that the state should do less, better, and that decisions are best taken as closely as possible to where they impact, it addresses the straitened circumstances of the time...”
The Sunday Telegraph editorial still believes that there is a marked difference between the two main parties: “Despite the parties' attempts to capture the all-important middle ground, the differences between them are clear. Labour believes that only the state can solve the country's economic and social problems. The Conservatives, by contrast, believe that the growth of the central state is the cause of the problem, not its solution, and want to call upon the invigorating power of citizens and communities.”
qanawu.blogspot.com
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